Niken Wulandari(1*), Andi Fahmi Lubis(2),

(1) Departemen Ilmu Ekonomi, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta
(2) Departemen Ilmu Ekonomi, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta
(*) Corresponding Author


Abstract : Regardless the benefits of imported inputs, uncertainties in foreign markets and highly sunk inisial costs (e.g. cost of searching foreign suppliers), become a barrier to entry for most of firm and causing persistent to use the imported input. However, the sunk cost entry give the information insentives about import activities for the importer. So, when importers are neighboring in a location, they pottentially induce knowledge spillovers to the other firms. The more importers at that location, the more knowledge is spread, so that it can potentially reduce initial import costs and increase the prospensity to import for other neighbors. This study uses dynamic panel data of Indonesian manufacturing firms from 2007 until 2015, to examine the determinant of decision to import, especially sunk cost and spillovers. The results of the GMM difference estimation indicate that firm who imported last year and two years earlier more likely to import input this year, both for domestic and foreign firms. This study also found a positive correlation between probability of importing input and the number of importer in the same region regardless of their industrial affiliation. However, this finding is limited only to indegenous firm which generated by agglomeration of indegenous importers.

Keywords: decision to import, sunk cost of import entry,  spillover, dynamic panel data

Abstrak : Terlepas dari manfaat imported input, ketidakpastian di pasar luar negeri dan biaya inisial yang tinggi dan sunk mencegah sebagian besar perusahaan untuk mengimpor dan menyebabkan perusahaan persisten mengimpor bahan baku.  Namun, sunk cost entry tersebut sarat akan informasi terkait aktivitas impor, sehingga berpotensi menimbulkan knowledge spillover ketika importir berdekatan di satu lokasi tertentu. Semakin banyak importir di lokasi tersebut, semakin banyak informasi yang tersebar, sehingga dapat mengurangi biaya inisial impor dan meningkatkan kecenderungan untuk mengimpor bagi perusahaan lain. Penelitian ini mengunakan data panel dinamis perusahaan manufaktur di Indonesia (2007 - 2015) untuk mempelajari determinan keputusan impor bahan baku, terutama sunk cost entry dan import spillover. Hasil estimasi GMM difference menunjukkan perusahaan yang mengimpor satu dan dua tahun sebelumnya cenderung akan mengimpor bahan baku tahun ini, baik bagi perusahaan domestik maupun asing. Penelitian ini juga menemukan adanya hubungan positif antara keputusan impor dengan jumlah importir yang berada di satu kabupaten baik di industri yang sama maupun berbeda. Namun, temuan tersebut terbatas hanya terjadi bagi perusahaan domestik yang berasal dari aglomerasi importir domestik.

Kata kunci: keputusan untuk impor, sunk cost import entry, spillover, data panel dinamis


decision to import, sunk cost of import entry, spillover, dynamic panel data

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